I have a message to all of those folks out there who are hoping that the economy will get better, that their mortgage company will “work” with them, or that the government will do something to help them through the financial quagmire they find themselves in: the sun is not going to come out tomorrow. Perhaps more succinctly said: it ain’t going to happen. I know I sound really negative, but hear me out.
Contrary to what you may read in the news, there are not a lot of mortgage work-outs and rewrites going on. If you do not have equity in your real estate, you’re going to have a tough – if not impossible time trying to refinance. The same applies if you are behind in mortgage payments or if the income is not there to pay the monthly mortgage payments. If you got sucked into an exotic mortgage product with the hope that the value of your real estate was only going to appreciate, then if you think you’re in a precarious position now, it’s only going to get worse.
Property values are depreciating everywhere. If you think I am being melodramatic, read about what’s happening in Arizona, California and Maryland. Then look further.
Property values are starting to go below the mortgage notes secured by the property ….and this hurts even those who did not get into exotic loans. Read more here: here’s a homeowner that bought a home for approximately $400,000 and the value has dropped 20%. Let’s assume that the homeowner put down a $40,000 as a down payment. If the value has dropped 20%, that down payment has evaporated. Poof. All gone (and unfortunately, I have clients in a very similar situation). If the homeowner was in an interest only payment period, then none of those payments were being applied to principal. Without equity, that homeowner has little chance of refinancing.
In addition to all of that the economy is tanking. I am no economist, nor do I pretend to be, but I did grow up during the 70s. I remember the gas lines, the “WIN” buttons and the nightly news updates reporting the price of gold. At that time, it touched just over $800 per ounce. A few years ago, on this very site, I wrote that a rise in the price of gold should be expected. Here’s what I wrote on October 17, 2005:
[W]hat can we Americans expect in the days, months and years to follow? Expect foreclosures to sky-rocket. Expect real estate values to plummet. Expect a slow down in consumer spending. Expect lay offs and business closings. Expect the price of gold, an indicator of inflation, to push past its now 18 year high (a fact which is curiously under reported in the main stream media).
As I write this article, gold is over $900 per ounce. In October 17, 2005, the price of gold closed at $473.80. And we’re no where near the end of this mess.
I’m not the only one touting this fact: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is. Watch these videos at Calculated Risk. Mr. Paulson is asked: “Is the worst over?” His answer speaks for itself.
Despite the wishful (and perhaps understandable) thinking of real estate professionals, the real estate market has not hit bottom. The price of gold (and likely silver) is only going to continue to inch its way up to history making highs. If the financial storm has not hit you yet, be thankful but do not assume you are safe and secure on high ground. Think of it this way: the flood waters are still rising, and no one really knows where “safe” high ground really is. All you can do is be aware, pay attention and prepare because when it comes right down to it, “the worst isn't over, the worst is just beginning.”
In other words, the sun is not going to come out tomorrow. Please plan accordingly.
